Nancy’s house in the Catalina Foothills (Doug Kari)
After spending three days at the Nancy Guthrie crime scene, talking with neighbors and media personnel, and after reading thousands of comments to my online posts, I’ve heard theories ranging from plausible to wild.
The cartel kidnapped Nancy. It was a robbery gone bad. Nancy’s own family killed her. It’s all hoax. The case ties to Epstein, or the Clintons, or Trump. These are just a few of the theories that people have voiced to me.
In return, people often ask about my theory of the case. Disclaimer: These are mere possibilities, not proven facts.
The Nancy Guthrie suspect (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
WHO KIDNAPPED NANCY?
From the outset, my theory has been that the suspect was someone who previously did work at Nancy’s house and was familiar with the neighborhood. Here’s why.
Aerial view of Nancy’s property (Google Maps)
Nancy’s home requires a lot of upkeep: It’s a 3,100 square foot house built in 1969 with an outbuilding and swimming pool on a one-acre lot. At 84 years old, Nancy needs help with maintenance.
The suspect’s jacket is a Walmart brand (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
The suspect looked like a laborer: The suspect carried an inexpensive Walmart Ozark Trail backpack and wore a Walmart zip-up jacket and black nitrile work gloves.
Nighttime outside Nancy’s house (Doug Kari)
The suspect knew his way around: Nancy’s home isn’t easy to find at night. It’s in a dark sky community with winding streets.
The suspect uprooted a plant in an attempt to cover the doorbell camera (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
The suspect seemed at ease: In the Ring doorbell video, the suspect had the confident manner of someone who had been to the house before.
WHAT WAS THE SUSPECT’S MOTIVE?
I believe the suspect was seeking either economic gain or sexual gratification.
This man admitted to sexually assaulting an elderly patient in Scottsdale, AZ (Fox 10 Phoenix)
Elderly women often get assaulted: Sexual assaults against elderly women are common in places such as nursing homes. When a younger man assaults an elderly woman, it’s about power and control, not physical attractiveness.
A long time elapsed between the doorbell camera disconnecting and Nancy’s pacemaker going out of range (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
An assault explains the timeline: See above – according to the Pima County Sheriff’s Office, the suspect may have stayed at Nancy’s house for up to 41 minutes.
The suspect’s backpack appeared full when he arrived outside Nancy’s door (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
Robbery theory: The suspect could have been a robber who got into a fight with Nancy. But why would a robber arrive at the crime scene with his backpack already full?
Nancy’s family said they would pay a ransom if given proof she was still alive (Instagram)
Kidnapping theory: The suspect could have been a kidnapper, but if so, why couldn’t he provide proof of life when begged to do so by Nancy’s family? A savvy kidnapper would know that a large ransom payment is unlikely without proof of life.
Nancy was elderly and frail (NBC)
Nancy was a crime opportunity: Whether the motive was sexual or economic, the suspect likely spotted Nancy as an opportunity – an elderly woman living alone in an isolated location.
WHY HASN’T THE CASE BEEN CRACKED?
It’s not surprising that authorities haven’t yet found Nancy or, so far as we know, identified a suspect.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos briefs the media (Pima Co. Sheriff’s Office)
Crime investigation takes time: A huge amount of work needs to be done in this case. Interviewing neighbors and workers. Sifting through thousands of tips and leads. Finding and reviewing surveillance video footage. Mapping cell phone data.
Nancy’s house is close to a region of Mexico where crime and kidnappings are rampant (Google Maps)
The suspect could tie to Mexico: With the border only 71 miles away, many of the workers in Tucson are from Mexico and have few footprints in the USA. The suspect could even be undocumented and completely off the radar north of the border.
Nancy is probably gone: From the outset I doubted that Nancy was still alive. Out of respect for the family, I didn’t voice my doubts on social media. But I’ve seen too many cases where women go missing and never return, or later turn up dead. Plus, there was the trail of blood outside Nancy’s door…
The Arizona desert near Nancy’s house is rugged and vast (Doug Kari)
It’s a big desert: If Nancy is deceased, there are thousands of square miles where her body might be – in Arizona, Mexico, and beyond.
Neighbors built a shrine outside Nancy’s house (Doug Kari)
At this point, all we can do is pray – if not for Nancy’s safe return, then at least for her family to find closure.
